FTX Founder’s Potential Pardon: Trump’s Crypto Gambit Gains Traction
As of October 30, 2025, prediction markets are witnessing unprecedented speculation surrounding former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried's potential presidential pardon, with odds surging from 4% to 16% within trading periods. The remarkable shift in market sentiment reflects growing belief that Donald Trump, should he return to power in 2025, might grant clemency to the disgraced cryptocurrency exchange founder. According to Polymarket data, the probability of Bankman-Fried's release initially jumped from 4% to 13% before stabilizing around 12%, while separate markets tracking Trump's potential 2025 pardons specifically assign SBF a 7% likelihood. This market movement represents one of the most significant volatility spikes in political prediction history regarding cryptocurrency figures. The speculation emerges against the backdrop of FTX's catastrophic collapse that rocked the crypto industry, leaving countless investors with substantial losses and raising fundamental questions about regulatory oversight in digital asset markets. Bankman-Fried's legal team has been actively pursuing various avenues for his defense, though the sudden market activity suggests traders are pricing in political considerations beyond conventional legal strategies. The phenomenon highlights how prediction markets are increasingly serving as barometers for political and regulatory developments in the cryptocurrency space. Market analysts note that such significant odds movements typically indicate either insider information circulation or coordinated trading based on political intelligence. The separation between general release probability (12%) and specific Trump pardon likelihood (7%) suggests traders are accounting for multiple potential scenarios, including other political developments or legal breakthroughs. This development comes as the cryptocurrency industry continues to navigate complex regulatory landscapes and seeks to rebuild institutional trust following the FTX debacle. The market activity has sparked intense discussion among legal experts, political commentators, and cryptocurrency enthusiasts about the potential implications of such a pardon for the industry's future regulatory framework and public perception.
Speculation Grows Over Potential Trump Pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried as Odds Rise to 16%
Prediction markets are signaling heightened speculation that former U.S. President Donald Trump could pardon Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced founder of collapsed crypto exchange FTX. Polymarket data shows odds for his release jumping from 4% to 13%, then stabilizing at 12%—with a separate market tracking Trump's potential 2025 pardons assigning SBF a 7% chance.
The former FTX CEO's official X account fueled controversy by retweeting a Polymarket post about his potential clemency, drawing sharp backlash from the crypto community. Legal analysts note stark contrasts between Bankman-Fried's case and that of Binance's Changpeng Zhao, who received a comparatively lenient sentence.
Wagers on the outcome have surged to $356,045, reflecting divided sentiment. Some view a pardon as plausible given Trump's history of controversial clemency decisions, while others see it as antithetical to crypto's push for regulatory legitimacy.
Ex-FTX US Chief Brett Harrison Launches AX Trading Platform for Traditional Asset Perpetuals
Brett Harrison, former president of FTX US, has unveiled AX through his new venture Architect Financial Technologies—a regulated exchange bringing crypto-style perpetual futures to traditional markets. Stocks, currencies, commodities, and interest rates will trade as 24/7 non-expiring contracts, collateralized by fiat or stablecoins.
The platform aims to inject crypto's always-on liquidity into legacy finance. "It's time traditional markets benefited from the speed and flexibility crypto already offers," Harrison stated in a tweet announcing the launch. AX is headquartered in Bermuda, leveraging the jurisdiction's regulatory framework for digital asset innovation.
